Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Overpressure Burst of Pipeline with Pressure-Protection Systems in Case of Blockage

Abstract

Although overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems occurs infrequently in case of blockage, it endangers personnel safety and causes serious economic loss when it happens. Therefore, assessing the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage is necessary to prevent accidents. This study proposes a method based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for assessing the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage. First, a fault tree (FT) model of pipeline overpressure burst is constructed. The constructed FT model is then mapped into the DBN model to solve the uncertainty of the model. Second, the leaky Noisy-OR gate is used to define the uncertain logical relationships of relevant nodes in the DBN model. The effect of common cause failures on a pipeline’s redundant pressure-protection system is analyzed using the multiple error shock model. Finally, a natural gas export pipeline is presented as an example to demonstrate the proposed method. Results show that the method can effectively assess the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage.