Review of Traffic Volume Prediction Based on Bibliometric Analysis

Abstract

In order to understand the current study status and development trend of traffic volume forecasts, based on the VOS-viewer bibliometric tool and taking the Web of Science core collection and the literature related to traffic volume prediction studies in the recent 29 years (1993–2021) in CNKI’s core database as data sources, the study trends in the field of traffic volume forecasting are analyzed in terms of article age, country and region, journal source, and technical topics. Taking “traffic volume forecast” and “traffic volume forecasting” as the search topics, 592 valid literatures covering 6,438 keywords were searched. Based on the scientific knowledge mapping, the literature in the field of traffic volume prediction were sorted out and analyzed. The results show that: (1) traffic forecasting studies have been on the rise in the past 29 years, and the number of publications in China is the highest. (2) Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies is not only the journal with the largest number of literature, but also the journal with the largest number of citations, and Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development is the most cited journal among domestic journals. (3) The studies in the field of traffic volume forecasting are mainly conducted from the perspectives of highway traffic demand development prediction, traffic volume prediction method model, traffic events, and real-time monitoring, with a focus on the topics of highway traffic volume prediction, project construction feasibility study, short-time traffic volume prediction method modeling, and accuracy improvement, traffic event monitoring, and traffic spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. (4) The number of foreign study literature on the relationship between highway traffic volume and construction investment, traffic volume prediction under atypical conditions, and the studies on traffic volume prediction under adverse weather conditions such as rain and snow shows a significant increase in recent years. (5) Domestic studies on the improvement of the four-stage method, feasibility study of road traffic construction projects, and road tourism traffic volume prediction are relatively abundant, but mainly from the macroperspective of economy, population, and tourism industry, it is necessary to further increase the studies on the influence of seasonal changes, individual travel characteristics, and travel preferences on road tourism traffic volume prediction.