Agent-Based Simulation Modeling for the Evaluation and Dynamic Adjustment of Project Benefits in Urban Rail Transit PPPs

Abstract

Urban rail transit (URT) public–private partnership (PPP) projects are long-term, complex projects involving numerous stakeholders. Various unforeseeable events make the benefits of these projects uncertain, and disputes about the distribution and adjustment of benefits can seriously threaten project success. Therefore, there is a pressing need to effectively evaluate the project benefits available to various stakeholders and design a dynamic benefit-adjustment mechanism to ensure the successful completion of URT PPP projects. In full consideration of the complexities of projects of this nature and the adaptive behaviors of different stakeholders, a modeling framework was proposed to simulate the realization and dynamic adjustment of project benefits as a complex and comprehensive system defined by the microlevel dynamic behaviors of stakeholders and interactions among these behaviors through agent-based modeling (ABM). The framework was utilized to emulate a real-world URT PPP project for demonstration purposes. Next, two scenarios were simulated that considered the effects of the purchase behavior of the public and decisions concerning benefit adjustment on project benefits. The framework is a powerful decision support tool with regard to the benefits of URT PPP projects in that it can promote the maximization of overall benefits and the sustainability of URT projects.