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    Representation of Atmospheric Water Budget and Uncertainty Quantification of Future Changes in CMIP6 for the Seven U.S. National Climate Assessment Regions

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2022:;volume( 035 ):;issue: 022::page 3635
    Author:
    Agniv Sengupta
    ,
    Duane E. Waliser
    ,
    Elias C. Massoud
    ,
    Bin Guan
    ,
    Colin Raymond
    ,
    Huikyo Lee
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0114.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Observation-based climate model evaluation and future projections help policymakers in developing action plans for efficient management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hazardous extremes. Apart from this socioeconomic importance, the scientific value cannot be overstated, especially in light of the upcoming Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) report. In this study, we evaluate the realism of hydroclimate variability in the historical simulations of a suite of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Our results demonstrate systematic biases in the simulated seasonal precipitation—most prominently, wet bias over the mountainous western United States in winter, and dry bias over the U.S. central plains in summer. A distinctive feature of this work is our focus on the examination of the atmospheric water budget, in particular the relative importance of remote and local contributions—convergence of moisture fluxes and local land surface processes (evapotranspiration) respectively—in helping produce precipitation. This diagnosis reveals that the leading contribution of the remote influence in winter is overestimated by the CMIP6 multimodel mean (MMM), whereas the local influence, which is more influential in summer, is underestimated. Our results aid in understanding the drivers of seasonal precipitation over the United States, where precipitation will likely increase by the end of the century but with significant model disagreement for the summer and fall. In support of ongoing NCA efforts, our study aims to contribute a comprehensive, regional-level analysis of the moisture budget and emphasizes the importance of realistically simulating its major components in CGCMs.
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      Representation of Atmospheric Water Budget and Uncertainty Quantification of Future Changes in CMIP6 for the Seven U.S. National Climate Assessment Regions

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4290093
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    contributor authorAgniv Sengupta
    contributor authorDuane E. Waliser
    contributor authorElias C. Massoud
    contributor authorBin Guan
    contributor authorColin Raymond
    contributor authorHuikyo Lee
    date accessioned2023-04-12T18:42:00Z
    date available2023-04-12T18:42:00Z
    date copyright2022/10/31
    date issued2022
    identifier otherJCLI-D-22-0114.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4290093
    description abstractObservation-based climate model evaluation and future projections help policymakers in developing action plans for efficient management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hazardous extremes. Apart from this socioeconomic importance, the scientific value cannot be overstated, especially in light of the upcoming Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) report. In this study, we evaluate the realism of hydroclimate variability in the historical simulations of a suite of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Our results demonstrate systematic biases in the simulated seasonal precipitation—most prominently, wet bias over the mountainous western United States in winter, and dry bias over the U.S. central plains in summer. A distinctive feature of this work is our focus on the examination of the atmospheric water budget, in particular the relative importance of remote and local contributions—convergence of moisture fluxes and local land surface processes (evapotranspiration) respectively—in helping produce precipitation. This diagnosis reveals that the leading contribution of the remote influence in winter is overestimated by the CMIP6 multimodel mean (MMM), whereas the local influence, which is more influential in summer, is underestimated. Our results aid in understanding the drivers of seasonal precipitation over the United States, where precipitation will likely increase by the end of the century but with significant model disagreement for the summer and fall. In support of ongoing NCA efforts, our study aims to contribute a comprehensive, regional-level analysis of the moisture budget and emphasizes the importance of realistically simulating its major components in CGCMs.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleRepresentation of Atmospheric Water Budget and Uncertainty Quantification of Future Changes in CMIP6 for the Seven U.S. National Climate Assessment Regions
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume35
    journal issue22
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0114.1
    journal fristpage3635
    journal lastpage3658
    page3635–3658
    treeJournal of Climate:;2022:;volume( 035 ):;issue: 022
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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