Recent Early-Spring Drying Trend over Southern China Associated with Changes in the Zonal Thermal Contrast over the Pacific

Abstract

Southern China has experienced a discernible early-spring drying trend in recent decades. This drying trend is a direct result of a severe deficiency of water vapor, which is induced by local descent anomalies and strong anomalous northerlies from the northwestern Pacific. The predominant anomalous northerlies are directly associated with two anomalous warm highs over the North Pacific (NPH) and East Asia (EAH), respectively. Anomalous easterlies along the southern edge of the NPH divert southwestward over southern Japan and form a branch of the northerlies, which merges into strong northerlies east of the EAH to construct the prevalent and deep northerly anomalies along the coast of East Asia. The NPH is related to changes in the zonal contrast of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST-Tri), whose linear trend is dominated by warming in the western Pacific. The change in SST-Tri causes more precipitation in the tropical North Pacific, where strong ascent occurs and further facilitates robust descent over the extratropical North Pacific, facilitating the formation of the NPH. The EAH results from the interaction of tropical and higher latitudinal forcing in the context of global warming. On the one hand, enhanced precipitation over the Maritime Continent associated with the change in SST-Tri induces descent anomalies of the EAH over southern China via a local Hadley cell circulation. On the other hand, a “positive–negative–positive” tripolar tendency over the North Atlantic forces a wave train, which propagates eastward, becomes intensified over the Ural Mountains, and then moves farther eastward to affect the EAH. In addition, changes in SST-Tri can also modulate the tripole pattern over the North Pacific to further contribute to the EAH.