Do Hoosiers Forget How to Drive in the Snow Each Year?

Abstract

The winter season in many U.S. states includes snowfall, and with it comes comments about how drivers always seem to “forget” how to drive in snow when the first snowfall of the season occurs. This study assesses the accuracy of this popular sentiment during Indiana winters from 2007 to 2020. The number of motor vehicle crashes, injuries, and fatalities during the first snowfall of the season was compared with those during subsequent snow events. A grid of 46 cells was constructed to subdivide the state, and instances of snowfall and crashes were aggregated within each cell each day during the study period. Daily crash, injury, and fatality totals in each cell were normalized by their respective means and standard deviations, allowing for data from all cells to be combined into a single dataset. Four snow accumulation thresholds were examined: 1, 13, 25, and 51 mm. Distributions at each threshold show that more crashes occur on average on days with the first snowfall of the winter season than on other days with snowfall, regardless of the accumulation threshold used. Statistical tests support this result, showing significant differences between the mean numbers of crashes at each of the four snowfall thresholds. There were also significantly more injuries on the first snowfall day and more fatalities, although fatalities were only significant for the 13-mm snowfall threshold.