Evaluating Uncertainty Associated with Engineering Judgement in Predicting the Lateral Response of Conductors

Abstract

This paper presents the results from a prediction event, organized by the University of Western Australia (UWA) and the National Geotechnical Centrifuge Facility (NGCF), and performed as part of the International Symposium on Frontiers in Offshore Geotechnics to assess uncertainty in predicting the monotonic and cyclic lateral response of conductors. Geotechnical professionals from around the world were invited to predict the response of a model conductor (a flexible pile) subjected to a series of loading sequences in a centrifuge. A normally consolidated fine-grained soil was used in the tests, which was characterized by soil elements and in-flight T-bar penetrometer testing. While some participants provided accurate predictions, the mean response was an overestimate of the monotonic and cyclic load at the pile head, which was significant for large and very small displacements. An analysis of the submissions is presented to quantify the variability of the predictions received, assess the consequences of each design, and relay the uncertainty associated with engineering judgment in design.