Using Technology to Improve Delphi Method

Abstract

Introducing new technology, business processes, and working methods requires input and agreement from numerous participants if it is to succeed. Often the potential for, and cost of, failure precludes innovation. The Modified Delphi Method is a consultative process that uses computer technology combined with a survey to obtain constructive participation in the input and consensus process that is often essential to the success of a planned change. The method adds the advantage that the experience and expertise of the participants can be used to validate the proposed process so that the risk of failure is significantly reduced. There are two elements to development of computer technology: the technology itself and the effective application of that technology to a specific problem area. This paper addresses the second of these aspects as it presents a process that takes advantage of available computer technology to collect and analyze opinions from a reasonably large and diverse group of participants. The paper uses actual experience in validation of a new contracting process as the vehicle for illustration; the Modified Delphi process itself is applicable to many other situations.