Integrating Household Decisions in Quantifying the Seismic Resilience of Communities Subjected to a Sequence of Earthquakes

Abstract

A distributed simulation model is presented that integrates post-earthquake household decisions into quantifying the seismic resilience of communities subjected to a sequence of earthquakes. A simple multi-attribute rating technique (SMART) is used to model post-earthquake household decision making at the building level, whereas the earthquake sequence is modeled using time-dependent analysis during recovery from the first shock. Incremental dynamic analysis is used to develop fragility curves for first shock–damaged structures, which are distinguished from the conventional fragility curves of undamaged structures. A case study of a prototype community that comprises households with different socioeconomic characteristics in accordance with a typical small US community is used to show the influence that household decisions have on the overall seismic resilience of the community. The results suggest that seismic events with a larger first shock have a more severe impact on the seismic resilience of communities than events with a smaller first shock regardless of the magnitude of the subsequent shock.