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    Estimation of Exceedance Probability of Scour on Bridges Using Reliability Principles

    Source: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering:;2021:;Volume ( 026 ):;issue: 008::page 04021029-1
    Author:
    Manuel Contreras-Jara
    ,
    Tomás Echaveguren
    ,
    Alondra Chamorro
    ,
    Jose Vargas-Baecheler
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002109
    Publisher: ASCE
    Abstract: Scour is one of the most relevant causes of bridge collapse. Most existing scour models have been focused on estimating scour depth as input for bridge design. This estimation is mainly deterministic. Parameter uncertainty has been considered to estimate expected scour as well. This framework is suitable for bridge design but has limitations for risk analysis of bridge networks, in which exceedance probabilities are needed. In this paper we use the first-order reliability method to estimate the probability that the actual scour will exceed the design scour, considering the uncertainty in hydraulic and hydrological parameters. The procedure was applied to a case study in Chile using the flood-flow history between 30 and 60 years of eight fluviometric stations. The local, contraction, and general scour were estimated for return periods between 2 and 500 years. The exceedance probability obtained was highly dependent on the uncertainty in annual maximum flow, Froude’s number, top width, and riverbed longitudinal slope.
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      Estimation of Exceedance Probability of Scour on Bridges Using Reliability Principles

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4272345
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    contributor authorManuel Contreras-Jara
    contributor authorTomás Echaveguren
    contributor authorAlondra Chamorro
    contributor authorJose Vargas-Baecheler
    date accessioned2022-02-01T21:57:00Z
    date available2022-02-01T21:57:00Z
    date issued8/1/2021
    identifier other%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0002109.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4272345
    description abstractScour is one of the most relevant causes of bridge collapse. Most existing scour models have been focused on estimating scour depth as input for bridge design. This estimation is mainly deterministic. Parameter uncertainty has been considered to estimate expected scour as well. This framework is suitable for bridge design but has limitations for risk analysis of bridge networks, in which exceedance probabilities are needed. In this paper we use the first-order reliability method to estimate the probability that the actual scour will exceed the design scour, considering the uncertainty in hydraulic and hydrological parameters. The procedure was applied to a case study in Chile using the flood-flow history between 30 and 60 years of eight fluviometric stations. The local, contraction, and general scour were estimated for return periods between 2 and 500 years. The exceedance probability obtained was highly dependent on the uncertainty in annual maximum flow, Froude’s number, top width, and riverbed longitudinal slope.
    publisherASCE
    titleEstimation of Exceedance Probability of Scour on Bridges Using Reliability Principles
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume26
    journal issue8
    journal titleJournal of Hydrologic Engineering
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002109
    journal fristpage04021029-1
    journal lastpage04021029-15
    page15
    treeJournal of Hydrologic Engineering:;2021:;Volume ( 026 ):;issue: 008
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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