Fragility Analysis of Coastal Roadways and Performance Assessment of Coastal Transportation Systems Subjected to Storm Hazards

Abstract

Coastal transportation systems are extremely vulnerable due to the coupled impacts of storm surge, waves, and inundation. Existing literature has developed coastal fragility models for bridges. However, to date, flood fragility models for coastal roadways are lacking. For this purpose, the current study proposes a data-driven fragility model based on logistic regression for coastal roadways, with failure probability conditioned on distance to shoreline and inundation duration, using hindcast data for Hurricane Ike. In addition, the effect of bridge and roadway damage on transportation network performance is investigated through a case study on Galveston Island, Texas. The results indicate the spatial distribution of storm impacts on the transportation network, with select roads highly vulnerable if they are located within a couple of hundred meters of the shoreline. In addition, considering roadway damage in addition to bridge damage alone, which is the current state of the art, can have a significant impact on decreasing the performance of the transportation network. Such analyses shed light on potential policy or risk mitigation practices that are expected to be increasingly important in the future as sea level rise further reduces roadway distance to the shoreline or as storm intensity and frequency changes.