contributor author | Kenji Doering | |
contributor author | Julianne Quinn | |
contributor author | Patrick M. Reed | |
contributor author | Scott Steinschneider | |
date accessioned | 2022-01-31T23:56:35Z | |
date available | 2022-01-31T23:56:35Z | |
date issued | 7/1/2021 | |
identifier other | %28ASCE%29WR.1943-5452.0001386.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4270617 | |
description abstract | This work forwards time-varying sensitivity analysis of control policies as an approach to identify the value of the alternative timing of forecasts in a complex multipurpose reservoir system. The time-varying forecast diagnostics are demonstrated using the Conowingo Dam in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. First, we evaluate the utility of multiple lead time forecasts, both in isolation and in combination, to determine the sensitivity of optimal operations to forecast lead time. We then use time-varying sensitivities to determine how the system utilizes a particular forecast through time for two policies that emphasize hydropower and environmental objectives, respectively, in order to determine how the value of inflow information changes with respect to stakeholder preferences and evolving hydrologic conditions. Results show that the value of inflow information varies greatly depending on the objectives being emphasized and can decline or fade entirely when system constraints (e.g., lower bounds on reservoir stage and spillway thresholds) inhibit the use of forecasts to inform decisions, particularly during extreme events. | |
publisher | ASCE | |
title | Diagnosing the Time-Varying Value of Forecasts in Multiobjective Reservoir Control | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 147 | |
journal issue | 7 | |
journal title | Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management | |
identifier doi | 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001386 | |
journal fristpage | 04021031-1 | |
journal lastpage | 04021031-13 | |
page | 13 | |
tree | Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management:;2021:;Volume ( 147 ):;issue: 007 | |
contenttype | Fulltext | |