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    Diagnosing the Time-Varying Value of Forecasts in Multiobjective Reservoir Control

    Source: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management:;2021:;Volume ( 147 ):;issue: 007::page 04021031-1
    Author:
    Kenji Doering
    ,
    Julianne Quinn
    ,
    Patrick M. Reed
    ,
    Scott Steinschneider
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001386
    Publisher: ASCE
    Abstract: This work forwards time-varying sensitivity analysis of control policies as an approach to identify the value of the alternative timing of forecasts in a complex multipurpose reservoir system. The time-varying forecast diagnostics are demonstrated using the Conowingo Dam in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. First, we evaluate the utility of multiple lead time forecasts, both in isolation and in combination, to determine the sensitivity of optimal operations to forecast lead time. We then use time-varying sensitivities to determine how the system utilizes a particular forecast through time for two policies that emphasize hydropower and environmental objectives, respectively, in order to determine how the value of inflow information changes with respect to stakeholder preferences and evolving hydrologic conditions. Results show that the value of inflow information varies greatly depending on the objectives being emphasized and can decline or fade entirely when system constraints (e.g., lower bounds on reservoir stage and spillway thresholds) inhibit the use of forecasts to inform decisions, particularly during extreme events.
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      Diagnosing the Time-Varying Value of Forecasts in Multiobjective Reservoir Control

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4270617
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    contributor authorKenji Doering
    contributor authorJulianne Quinn
    contributor authorPatrick M. Reed
    contributor authorScott Steinschneider
    date accessioned2022-01-31T23:56:35Z
    date available2022-01-31T23:56:35Z
    date issued7/1/2021
    identifier other%28ASCE%29WR.1943-5452.0001386.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4270617
    description abstractThis work forwards time-varying sensitivity analysis of control policies as an approach to identify the value of the alternative timing of forecasts in a complex multipurpose reservoir system. The time-varying forecast diagnostics are demonstrated using the Conowingo Dam in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. First, we evaluate the utility of multiple lead time forecasts, both in isolation and in combination, to determine the sensitivity of optimal operations to forecast lead time. We then use time-varying sensitivities to determine how the system utilizes a particular forecast through time for two policies that emphasize hydropower and environmental objectives, respectively, in order to determine how the value of inflow information changes with respect to stakeholder preferences and evolving hydrologic conditions. Results show that the value of inflow information varies greatly depending on the objectives being emphasized and can decline or fade entirely when system constraints (e.g., lower bounds on reservoir stage and spillway thresholds) inhibit the use of forecasts to inform decisions, particularly during extreme events.
    publisherASCE
    titleDiagnosing the Time-Varying Value of Forecasts in Multiobjective Reservoir Control
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume147
    journal issue7
    journal titleJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001386
    journal fristpage04021031-1
    journal lastpage04021031-13
    page13
    treeJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management:;2021:;Volume ( 147 ):;issue: 007
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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