Risk Assessment Model for Heritage Buildings: Case Study of Yemen

Abstract

Heritage buildings are considered unique assets with a significant value for the country where they are situated that must be conserved or preserved for the coming generations. However, heritage sites, as any other site where a construction is present, experience tremendous risks that impact both the condition and the withstanding of the building or asset they include. Therefore, a risk management framework is essential for these sites and buildings, in particular to be able to decide how to respond and act upon foreseeable risks when they occur or even before experiencing them. This study starts with investigating the most dominant risks in the heritage buildings context with a focus on Yemeni sites, and consequently 38 Yemeni experts in the field of heritage building management were surveyed to examine the identified risks in three case study heritage sites in Yemen. The significance of the risks as well as their impact, likelihood, and detectability levels were measured using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) basis that reduces the subjectivity of the expert opinions. After risks were analyzed, a suitable response action was therefore suggested to manage and minimize risk impacts as much as possible. In addition to the relative scoring for the priority of each identified risk, an overall risk proneness metric is presented in this paper that can be used to compare the vulnerability of different heritage buildings and/or sites for a strategic efficient budget allocation for the management and preservation of those areas. The preliminary results revealed that armed conflicts, climate change, and flooding are three of the most critical risk factors in Yemeni heritage buildings. This framework is expected to aid heritage building managers in identifying the correct course of actions to prevent or mitigate risks from disturbing the heritage sites and help preserve their value and significance.