Risk Response of Complex Projects: Risk Association Network Method

Abstract

A complex project, which has been recognized as a complex system with intricate interactions among organizations, is inevitably plagued with diverse risks and has fuzzy risk boundaries. Risk systems emerging from organizations and their interactions cannot be accounted for by traditional risk management theory. Research concerning risk response strategies that focus on these areas is urgently required. Through literature review and case analysis, 78 complex project organization-associated risks were identified. Three rounds of brainstorming meetings were used to collect risk association data from nine professional senior engineers participating in the construction process for complex projects within the last decade. The data were processed to model the complex network of complex project risk association. Targeted immunization and improved acquaintance immunization were applied to risk network of specific complex projects to empirically analyze changes in network density, helping to determine the optimal immunization strategy, including identification of critical risks and prevention of abnormal risk-associated transmission. Results demonstrated the feasibility and superiority of the model and the applicability of the response strategies developed. This research develops, for the first time, a list of complex project risks as well as a risk association complex-network model that is applicable to engineering practice, thus providing theoretical support for risk management in complex projects and an understanding of risk response strategies for decision makers.