Bid or No-Bid Decision Model for International Construction Projects: Evidential Reasoning Approach

Abstract

The decision to bid or not bid on international construction project tenders is highly complex, due to the many uncertain factors associated with such projects. This study proposes a multiattribute bid or no-bid decision model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, which effectively deals with the uncertainty arising from qualitative criteria and incomplete information. Evaluation of the bid or no-bid decision is divided into six stages according to the objectives set in the decision framework, as proposed in an earlier study. The ER approach plays a triple role in the model, improving the method for ascertaining the weights of criteria, aggregating the qualitative and incomplete information assessments of experts, and fusing the value of lower attributes to an upper attribute. The decision model is validated as feasible through the successful application of the model in a case project and verified as practical by an experimental case study. Although this decision model has certain limitations, it offers an innovative way of solving the bid or no-bid decision problem within the international construction setting. This study contributes to the body of knowledge in international construction management by providing a validated bid or no-bid decision model tailored to the specific considerations required of overseas projects and enriches the knowledge and application of the ER approach.