Maneuverability-Based Approach for Ship–Bank Collision Probability under Strong Wind and Ship–Bank Interaction

Abstract

Ship–bank collisions linked to strong wind and ship–bank interaction pose a great threat to ships with large windage areas in restricted waters. In the analysis of ship–bank collision probability, maneuvering simulations with reasonable estimates of wind conditions and ship routes are important but have had little investigation. This paper presents a maneuverability-based analytical approach for evaluating the probability of a container ship colliding with a channel bank under strong wind. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to conduct numerous runs of the maneuvering simulation. The steady state equations of ship motion and the time-domain simulation method are combined in this approach to detect a ship–bank collision. The input data for the simulation including wind speeds, wind directions, and ships' positions relative to the channel centerline are obtained from the meteorological data and the Automatic Identification System. The proposed approach is applied to a probabilistic analysis of a 10,000 TEU container ship entering Yangshan port, and discussion is given on the feasible ship speed and stacking configuration for reducing the probability of ship–bank collisions.