Analytical Stochastic Microcomponent Modeling Approach to Assess Network Spatial Scale Effects in Water Supply Systems

Abstract

End-uses at water supply systems typically follow a random pulse behavior, which blurs as consumptions are aggregated upstream, affecting flow rate variability along the spatial scale. Instantaneous variability has impact on the capacity of a hydraulic model to represent rapidly changing flow network scenarios, but traditional models only simulate average conditions. This paper analyzes the spatial scale effect in instantaneous flow variability by making use of a novel analytical approach to SIMDEUM (standing for SIMulation of water Demand, an End-Use Model) microcomponent-based stochastic demand model. Analytical results show good correspondence to previous results at the Benthuizen case study and demonstrate the potential use of the approach to assess the effect of network size in a realistic system. Results prove that demand coefficients of variation increase in the periphery of water systems according to power laws, highlighting the necessity of considering real variability rather than average conditions in these areas where real water flows never correspond to average flows. This is of utmost importance when dealing with real measurements and water quality applications.