Empirical Local Hazard Models for Bolide Explosions

Abstract

Bolide explosions are a natural hazard associated with meteoroids or asteroids entering Earth’s atmosphere. Existing hazard models for predicting the frequencies, return periods, and occurrence probabilities of bolide explosion events were usually developed from a global perspective in terms of planetary defense and mitigation. Consequently, there is a lack of local hazard models for bolide explosions. This paper presents two empirical local hazard models for bolide explosions for the interest of local hazard management professionals and the general public. The proposed hazard models are based on parametrizations, with historical data, of regression models on relationships between released energy and frequency, latitude and frequency, and released energy and altitude of bolide explosion events. The proposed models can be used to predict the frequencies, return periods, and/or occurrence probabilities of bolide explosion events within a distance from a location as well as above an area on the surface of the planet on yearly and daily bases. The paper applies the proposed models to make predictions, as examples, for multiple places and the entire world.