Towards an Operational Flow Forecasting System for the Upper Niagara River

Abstract

The authors developed a Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) model to serve as the key component of a new, first-of-its-kind, short-term operational flow forecasting system for the Niagara River. The Niagara River transports a continental-scale flow (with an annual mean of roughly 6,300 m3/s) that supports the economy of both the United States and Canada through hydropower generation, tourism, and other activities. The river also serves as a link connecting the two most downstream lakes (Lakes Erie and Ontario) in the largest system of lakes on Earth. Despite its significance, the authors know of no federally operated, short-term forecasting system for the Niagara River. Hydropower facilities management and other water resources management activities on the river have historically relied on an array of experimental, in-house, or proprietary models to simulate and forecast Niagara River flows. The study presented here fills this gap in large-scale hydraulic modeling and engineering science by calibrating a HEC–RAS model for the Upper Niagara River and customizing it to meet the operational requirements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Northeast River Forecasting Center (NERFC). The skill of the new forecasting system, which was recently deployed in its operational environment at the NERFC, will depend in large part on the accuracy of meteorological boundary conditions. The authors envision a more comprehensive assessment of the system’s forecasting skill and other potential future model improvements as an area for future research.