Measuring the Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of Urban House Prices in East China

Abstract

Based on a spatial vector autoregression (VAR) model and generalized spatiotemporal impulse responses, this paper analyzes urban house price diffusion in East China. The results suggest that a certain amount of spatial and temporal diffusion of neighboring cities exists within the study area. When the central city of the urban agglomeration, Shanghai (SH), and the subcenter city, Hangzhou (HZ), are assumed to be the price diffusion center cities, more than half the surrounding cities are significantly affected by any house price changes in the diffusion center city. Current price changes in SH and HZ have the greatest scope of influence, while SH is the most unlikely city to be affected by house price changes in other cities in the long term. The central city, SH, has a wider radiation range of house price diffusion, while HZ, as a subcenter, has a greater but shorter-lasting impact on the prices of houses within a closer range. However, SH and HZ are not completely dominant in the regional housing market. The house price diffusion mechanism is more significant under conditions of economic connection. Transportation, accessibility, and information dissemination could also explain house price diffusion in East China.