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    Profit Allocation and Subsidy Mechanism for Public–Private Partnership Toll Road Projects

    Source: Journal of Management in Engineering:;2020:;Volume ( 036 ):;issue: 003
    Author:
    Lulu Jin
    ,
    Zhanmin Zhang
    ,
    Jinbo Song
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000766
    Publisher: ASCE
    Abstract: Public–private partnership (PPP) toll road projects are widespread around the world. However, it is difficult to predict traffic demand and cost accurately, which may lead to high profit risks for the private sector or increase the fiscal burden for the government. This paper proposes an effective methodological framework for the probabilistic evaluation of the excess profit allocation between the government and the private investor, as well as the corresponding subsidy mechanism. First, an annual profit function is introduced, taking particular care to include factors associated with uncertainties. Then, by applying Monte Carlo simulation to a proposed dynamic quantitative model, the excess profit allocation ratio and subsidy ratio are determined. The model was verified using SH 130, a PPP toll road in Texas, for which a sensitivity analysis was conducted to illustrate the impact of different risk factors. This paper provides a knowledge base so that decision makers can recognize the importance of accurately forecasting profit risks in order to provide a reasonable and fair profit redistribution mechanism to facilitate PPP contract design.
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      Profit Allocation and Subsidy Mechanism for Public–Private Partnership Toll Road Projects

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4266080
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    contributor authorLulu Jin
    contributor authorZhanmin Zhang
    contributor authorJinbo Song
    date accessioned2022-01-30T19:50:56Z
    date available2022-01-30T19:50:56Z
    date issued2020
    identifier other%28ASCE%29ME.1943-5479.0000766.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4266080
    description abstractPublic–private partnership (PPP) toll road projects are widespread around the world. However, it is difficult to predict traffic demand and cost accurately, which may lead to high profit risks for the private sector or increase the fiscal burden for the government. This paper proposes an effective methodological framework for the probabilistic evaluation of the excess profit allocation between the government and the private investor, as well as the corresponding subsidy mechanism. First, an annual profit function is introduced, taking particular care to include factors associated with uncertainties. Then, by applying Monte Carlo simulation to a proposed dynamic quantitative model, the excess profit allocation ratio and subsidy ratio are determined. The model was verified using SH 130, a PPP toll road in Texas, for which a sensitivity analysis was conducted to illustrate the impact of different risk factors. This paper provides a knowledge base so that decision makers can recognize the importance of accurately forecasting profit risks in order to provide a reasonable and fair profit redistribution mechanism to facilitate PPP contract design.
    publisherASCE
    titleProfit Allocation and Subsidy Mechanism for Public–Private Partnership Toll Road Projects
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume36
    journal issue3
    journal titleJournal of Management in Engineering
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000766
    page04020011
    treeJournal of Management in Engineering:;2020:;Volume ( 036 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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