Fuzzy Monte Carlo Agent-Based Simulation of Construction Crew Performance

Abstract

The use of agent-based modeling (ABM) in the analysis of construction processes and practices has increased significantly over the last decade. However, the developed models are not able to address both random and subjective uncertainties that exist in many construction processes and practices. Monte Carlo simulation is able to account for random uncertainty, and fuzzy logic is able to account for the subjective uncertainty that exists in model variables and relationships. In this paper, a methodology for the development of fuzzy Monte Carlo agent-based models in construction is provided, and its application is illustrated through the development of a model of construction crew performance. This paper makes three contributions: first, it expands ABM’s scope of applicability by showing how to model both random and subjective uncertainty in ABM; second, it provides a novel methodology for integrating fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulation in ABM, which allows for the development of fuzzy Monte Carlo agent-based models in construction; and third, it illustrates a fuzzy Monte Carlo agent-based simulation of construction crew performance, which improves the assessment of crew performance by considering both random and subjective uncertainties in model variables.