Duration Analysis of Emergency Shutdown Incidents Regarding Hazardous Liquid Pipelines

Abstract

Pipelines serve as critical infrastructure, and shutdowns of any duration can cause interruptions to sensitive supply chains. This paper develops a model using 789 incidents involving a hazardous liquid pipeline emergency shutdown with durations varying from a few minutes to months. A hazard-based duration analysis is used to understand the characteristics and mechanisms that influence how long a facility remained shut down. A parametric Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity is used to account for unobserved characteristics in the reported data. The insights gained from the duration analysis help to identify specific characteristics and areas that operators can address to decrease interruption durations. The findings address specific areas including response plans, incident locations, and maintenance programs where practices and policies could be implemented to reduce shutdown duration. Quantitative interpretation from marginal effects is presented, which can identify the improvement in duration rate for implemented changes. The model was applied to an historical incident in Marshall, Michigan, which confirmed the findings from the model.