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    Verification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2020:;volume( 35 ):;issue: 006::page 2279
    Author:
    Køltzow, Morten;Casati, Barbara;Haiden, Thomas;Valkonen, Teresa
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0060.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Assessing the quality of precipitation forecasts requires observations, but all precipitation observations have associated uncertainties making it difficult to quantify the true forecast quality. One of the largest uncertainties is due to the wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation gauge measurements. This study discusses how this impacts the verification of precipitation forecasts for Norway for one global model [the high-resolution version of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS-HRES)], and one high-resolution, limited-area model [Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (MEPS)]. First, the forecasts are compared with high-quality reference measurements (less undercatch) and with more simple measurement equipment commonly available (substantial undercatch) at the Haukeliseter observation site. Then the verification is extended to include all Norwegian observation sites: 1) stratified by wind speed, since calm (windy) conditions experience less (more) undercatch; and 2) by applying transfer functions, which convert measured precipitation to what would have been measured with high-quality equipment with less undercatch, before the forecast–observation comparison is performed. Results show that the wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation has a substantial impact on verification results. Furthermore, applying transfer functions to adjust for wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation gives a more realistic picture of true forecast capabilities. In particular, estimates of systematic forecast biases are improved, and to a lesser degree, verification scores like correlation, RMSE, ETS, and stable equitable error in probability space (SEEPS). However, uncertainties associated with applying transfer functions are substantial and need to be taken into account in the verification process. Precipitation forecast verification for liquid and solid precipitation should be done separately whenever possible.
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      Verification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway

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    contributor authorKøltzow, Morten;Casati, Barbara;Haiden, Thomas;Valkonen, Teresa
    date accessioned2022-01-30T18:11:29Z
    date available2022-01-30T18:11:29Z
    date copyright10/15/2020 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2020
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherwafd200060.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4264638
    description abstractAssessing the quality of precipitation forecasts requires observations, but all precipitation observations have associated uncertainties making it difficult to quantify the true forecast quality. One of the largest uncertainties is due to the wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation gauge measurements. This study discusses how this impacts the verification of precipitation forecasts for Norway for one global model [the high-resolution version of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS-HRES)], and one high-resolution, limited-area model [Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (MEPS)]. First, the forecasts are compared with high-quality reference measurements (less undercatch) and with more simple measurement equipment commonly available (substantial undercatch) at the Haukeliseter observation site. Then the verification is extended to include all Norwegian observation sites: 1) stratified by wind speed, since calm (windy) conditions experience less (more) undercatch; and 2) by applying transfer functions, which convert measured precipitation to what would have been measured with high-quality equipment with less undercatch, before the forecast–observation comparison is performed. Results show that the wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation has a substantial impact on verification results. Furthermore, applying transfer functions to adjust for wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation gives a more realistic picture of true forecast capabilities. In particular, estimates of systematic forecast biases are improved, and to a lesser degree, verification scores like correlation, RMSE, ETS, and stable equitable error in probability space (SEEPS). However, uncertainties associated with applying transfer functions are substantial and need to be taken into account in the verification process. Precipitation forecast verification for liquid and solid precipitation should be done separately whenever possible.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleVerification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume35
    journal issue6
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-20-0060.1
    journal fristpage2279
    journal lastpage2292
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2020:;volume( 35 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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