On the Mean Flow in the Western Gulf of Mexico and a Reappraisal of Errors in Ship-Drift Data

Abstract

Ship-drift data in the Gulf of Mexico have led to a perplexing result, that the near-surface flow in the west has a north–south mean, of the east–west flow, ~5–10 cm s−1 into a closed basin. Ship-drift data have been used in the past hundred years under the assumption that they are reasonably accurate; the present study examines that assumption carefully, finding that the standard deviation of individual observations is typically ~20 cm s−1. In a monthly mean composed of order 400 observations or more, as examined here, the standard error of the mean will be reduced accordingly. In the southern part of the western Gulf of Mexico, the observed upper-layer flow is clearly to the west and is consistent with our expectations. In the northern part, however, the apparent flow as reported by ship drift in deep water is not significantly different from zero. Thus, the puzzling result remains: three different datasets in the southern half of the basin clearly show flow to the west, with speeds of 10 cm s−1 or more, yet there is no clear evidence of a near-surface return flow back to the east. The convergent wind stress forces downwelling of the upper layer; its return flow could be at some intermediate depth. The transport to the west from Loop Current rings is possibly returned in a deep boundary flow driven by the rectification of deep topographic Rossby waves.