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    Warming Patterns Affect El Niño Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2020:;volume( 33 ):;issue: 019::page 8237
    Author:
    Freund, Mandy B.;Brown, Josephine R.;Henley, Benjamin J.;Karoly, David J.;Brown, Jaclyn N.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0890.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Given the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the representation of El Niño diversity in climate models for the present day and the future. In recent decades, El Niño events have occurred more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events have increased in intensity. However, the processes and future implications of these observed changes in El Niño are not well understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events are assessed in models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and results are compared to extended instrumental and multicentury paleoclimate records. Future changes of El Niño are stronger for CP events than for EP events and differ between models. Models with a projected La Niña–like mean-state warming pattern show a tendency toward more EP but fewer CP events compared to models with an El Niño–like warming pattern. Among the models with more El Niño–like warming, differences in future El Niño can be partially explained by Pacific decadal variability (PDV). During positive PDV phases, more El Niño events occur, so future frequency changes are mainly determined by projected changes during positive PDV phases. Similarly, the intensity of El Niño is strongest during positive PDV phases. Future changes to El Niño may thus depend on both mean-state warming and decadal-scale natural variability.
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      Warming Patterns Affect El Niño Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

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    contributor authorFreund, Mandy B.;Brown, Josephine R.;Henley, Benjamin J.;Karoly, David J.;Brown, Jaclyn N.
    date accessioned2022-01-30T17:56:15Z
    date available2022-01-30T17:56:15Z
    date copyright8/26/2020 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2020
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherjclid190890.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4264219
    description abstractGiven the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the representation of El Niño diversity in climate models for the present day and the future. In recent decades, El Niño events have occurred more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events have increased in intensity. However, the processes and future implications of these observed changes in El Niño are not well understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events are assessed in models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and results are compared to extended instrumental and multicentury paleoclimate records. Future changes of El Niño are stronger for CP events than for EP events and differ between models. Models with a projected La Niña–like mean-state warming pattern show a tendency toward more EP but fewer CP events compared to models with an El Niño–like warming pattern. Among the models with more El Niño–like warming, differences in future El Niño can be partially explained by Pacific decadal variability (PDV). During positive PDV phases, more El Niño events occur, so future frequency changes are mainly determined by projected changes during positive PDV phases. Similarly, the intensity of El Niño is strongest during positive PDV phases. Future changes to El Niño may thus depend on both mean-state warming and decadal-scale natural variability.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleWarming Patterns Affect El Niño Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume33
    journal issue19
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0890.1
    journal fristpage8237
    journal lastpage8260
    treeJournal of Climate:;2020:;volume( 33 ):;issue: 019
    contenttypeFulltext
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