Moisture and Temperature Covariability over the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the Past Nine Centuries

Abstract

Accurate projections of moisture variability across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are crucial for managing regional water resources, ecosystems, and agriculture in densely populated downstream regions. Our understanding of how moisture conditions respond to increasing temperatures over the TP is still limited, due to the short length of instrumental data and the limited spatial coverage of high-resolution paleoclimate proxy records in this region. This study presents a new, early-summer (May–June) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) reconstruction for the southeastern TP (SETP) covering 1135–2010 CE using 14 tree-ring records based on 1669 individual width sample series. The new reconstruction reveals that the SETP experienced the longest period of pluvial conditions in 1154–75 CE, and the longest droughts during the periods 1262–80 and 1958–76 CE. The scPDSI reconstruction shows stable and significant in-phase relationships with temperature at both high and low frequencies throughout the past 900 years. This supports the hypothesis that climatic warming may increase moisture by enhancing moisture recycling and convective precipitation over the SETP; it is also consistent with climate model projections of wetter conditions by the late twenty-first century in response to global warming.