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    Decisive Atmospheric Circulation Indices for July–August Precipitation in North China Based on Tree Models

    Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2019:;volume 020:;issue 008::page 1707
    Author:
    Tong, Xuan
    ,
    Yan, Zhongwei
    ,
    Xia, Jiangjiang
    ,
    Lou, Xiao
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0045.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractNumerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July?August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar?Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India?Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns.
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      Decisive Atmospheric Circulation Indices for July–August Precipitation in North China Based on Tree Models

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4263901
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    contributor authorTong, Xuan
    contributor authorYan, Zhongwei
    contributor authorXia, Jiangjiang
    contributor authorLou, Xiao
    date accessioned2019-10-05T06:56:31Z
    date available2019-10-05T06:56:31Z
    date copyright7/2/2019 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2019
    identifier otherJHM-D-19-0045.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4263901
    description abstractAbstractNumerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July?August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar?Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India?Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleDecisive Atmospheric Circulation Indices for July–August Precipitation in North China Based on Tree Models
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume20
    journal issue8
    journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
    identifier doi10.1175/JHM-D-19-0045.1
    journal fristpage1707
    journal lastpage1720
    treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2019:;volume 020:;issue 008
    contenttypeFulltext
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