Numerical Simulation of Rapid Weakening of Hurricane Joaquin with Assimilation of High-Definition Sounding System Dropsondes during the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment: Comparison of Three- and Four-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation

Abstract

AbstractObservations from High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) dropsondes, collected for Hurricane Joaquin during the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field experiment in 2015, are assimilated into the NCEP Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model. The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based hybrid three-dimensional and four-dimensional ensemble?variational (3DEnVar and 4DEnVar) data assimilation configurations are compared. The assimilation of HDSS dropsonde observations can help HWRF initialization by generating consistent analysis between wind and pressure fields and can also compensate for the initial maximum surface wind errors in the absence of initial vortex intensity correction. Compared with GSI?3DEnVar, the assimilation of HDSS dropsonde observations using GSI?4DEnVar generates a more realistic initial vortex intensity and reproduces the rapid weakening (RW) of Hurricane Joaquin, suggesting that the assimilation of high-resolution inner-core observations (e.g., HDSS dropsonde data) based on an advanced data assimilation method (e.g., 4DEnVar) can potentially outperform the vortex initialization scheme currently used in HWRF. Additionally, the assimilation of HDSS dropsonde observations can improve the simulation of vortex structure changes and the accuracy of the vertical motion within the TC inner-core region, which is essential to the successful simulation of the RW of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF. Additional experiments with GSI?4DEnVar in different configurations also indicate that the performance of GSI?4DEnVar can be further improved with a high-resolution background error covariance and a denser observational bin.