Improving Background Error Covariances in a 3D Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation System for Regional NWP

Abstract

Following the recent development of a three-dimensional ensemble?variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation algorithm for the AROME-France NWP system, this paper examines different approaches to reduce the sampling noise in the ensemble-derived background error covariances in this new scheme without modifying the background ensemble generation strategy. We first examine two variants of scale-dependent localization: one method consists of applying different amounts of localization to different ranges of background error covariance spatial scales, while simultaneously assimilating all of the available observations. Another separate approach uses time-lagged forecasts in order to increase the effective ensemble size, up to a factor of 3 here. This approach of time-lagged forecasts is considered both on its own and together with scale-dependent localization. When the background error covariances are derived from the most recent 25-member ensemble forecasts, the results from data assimilation cycles over a 33-day winter period show that avoiding cross covariances between scales in the scale-dependent localization formulation first proposed by Buehner performs better than the more recent formulation of Buehner and Shlyaeva. However, when increasing the effective ensemble size to 75 members with time-lagged forecasts, the two scale-dependent formulations provide similar forecast improvements overall. It is also found that the lagged-members approach outperforms scale-dependent localization on its own. The largest forecast improvements are obtained when combining the two approaches.