On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E

Abstract

Dynamical processes determining the time evolution of difference kinetic energy (DKE) in a limited-area domain are investigated with the convection-permitting ensemble model COSMO-E for a forecasting period of 4 days. DKE is quantified by means of ensemble variance of the irrotational and nondivergent horizontal wind. For three case studies characterized by contrasting predictability levels of precipitation, it is shown that DKE of the irrotational wind strongly increases during periods of solar-forced moist convective activity and decreases when the latter ceases. The response of DKE of the nondivergent wind is also clearly related to the convective activity, but delayed by a few hours, pointing to interactions between both wind components. Apart from the impact of moist convection, DKE of the nondivergent wind is primarily governed by large-scale advection, imposed at the lateral domain boundaries of the limited-area ensemble. This forcing may also sustain or increase DKE of the irrotational wind when moist convection is absent. Consequently, the large-scale flow and diurnal solar forcing, associated with higher spatiotemporal predictability, determines the overall evolution of the limited-area ensemble variance of the horizontal wind, which increases in the presence of moist convective activity or strong synoptic-scale forcing, and stagnates or decreases otherwise, rendering forecasts of convection-permitting ensembles valuable beyond the very short forecast range.