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    Strength Outlooks for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2018:;volume 034:;issue 001::page 165
    Author:
    L’Heureux, Michelle L.
    ,
    Tippett, Michael K.
    ,
    Takahashi, Ken
    ,
    Barnston, Anthony G.
    ,
    Becker, Emily J.
    ,
    Bell, Gerald D.
    ,
    Di Liberto, Tom E.
    ,
    Gottschalck, Jon
    ,
    Halpert, Michael S.
    ,
    Hu, Zeng-Zhen
    ,
    Johnson, Nathaniel C.
    ,
    Xue, Yan
    ,
    Wang, Wanqiu
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Three strategies for creating probabilistic forecast outlooks for El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are compared. One is subjective and is currently used by the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to produce official ENSO outlooks. A second is purely objective and is based on the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). A new third strategy is proposed in which the forecaster only provides the expected value of the Niño-3.4 index, and then categorical probabilities are objectively determined based on past skill. The new strategy results in more confident probabilities compared to the subjective approach and higher verification scores, while avoiding the significant forecast busts that sometimes afflict the NMME-based objective approach. The higher verification scores of the new strategy appear to result from the added value that forecasters provide in predicting the mean, combined with more reliable representations of uncertainty, which is difficult to represent because forecasters often assume less confidence than is justified. Moreover, the new approach can produce higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts that include ENSO strength information and that are difficult, if not impossible, for forecasters to produce. To illustrate, a nine-category ENSO outlook based on the new strategy is assessed and found to be skillful. The new approach can be applied to other outlooks where users desire higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts, including the extremes.
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      Strength Outlooks for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4262486
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    contributor authorL’Heureux, Michelle L.
    contributor authorTippett, Michael K.
    contributor authorTakahashi, Ken
    contributor authorBarnston, Anthony G.
    contributor authorBecker, Emily J.
    contributor authorBell, Gerald D.
    contributor authorDi Liberto, Tom E.
    contributor authorGottschalck, Jon
    contributor authorHalpert, Michael S.
    contributor authorHu, Zeng-Zhen
    contributor authorJohnson, Nathaniel C.
    contributor authorXue, Yan
    contributor authorWang, Wanqiu
    date accessioned2019-09-22T09:02:53Z
    date available2019-09-22T09:02:53Z
    date copyright12/26/2018 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2018
    identifier otherWAF-D-18-0126.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4262486
    description abstractThree strategies for creating probabilistic forecast outlooks for El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are compared. One is subjective and is currently used by the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to produce official ENSO outlooks. A second is purely objective and is based on the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). A new third strategy is proposed in which the forecaster only provides the expected value of the Niño-3.4 index, and then categorical probabilities are objectively determined based on past skill. The new strategy results in more confident probabilities compared to the subjective approach and higher verification scores, while avoiding the significant forecast busts that sometimes afflict the NMME-based objective approach. The higher verification scores of the new strategy appear to result from the added value that forecasters provide in predicting the mean, combined with more reliable representations of uncertainty, which is difficult to represent because forecasters often assume less confidence than is justified. Moreover, the new approach can produce higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts that include ENSO strength information and that are difficult, if not impossible, for forecasters to produce. To illustrate, a nine-category ENSO outlook based on the new strategy is assessed and found to be skillful. The new approach can be applied to other outlooks where users desire higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts, including the extremes.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleStrength Outlooks for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume34
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1
    journal fristpage165
    journal lastpage175
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2018:;volume 034:;issue 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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