Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013Source: Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 019::page 8005DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0843.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe ecosystem and societal development over arid Central Asia, the core connecting region of the Silk Road Economic Belt, are highly sensitive to climate change. The results derived from multiobservational datasets show that summer precipitation over Central Asia has significantly increased by 20.78% from 1961 to 2013. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the summer wetting trend or not. In this study, the corresponding physical processes and contributions of anthropogenic forcing are investigated by comparing reanalysis and experiments of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1 (CAM5.1), from the CLIVAR Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project. The observed wetting trend is well reproduced in the simulation driven by all radiative forcings (CAM5-All), but poorly reproduced in the simulation with natural forcings only (CAM5-Nat), confirming the important role of human contribution in the observed wetting trend. Moisture budget analysis shows that the observed wetting trend is dominated by the increasing vertical moisture advection term and results from enhanced vertical motion over nearly all of Central Asia. The observed contributions of moisture budget components to the wetting trend are only captured by CAM5-All experiments. The dynamic contribution is determined by the warm advection anomalies in association with a human-induced meridional uneven warm pattern. Human-induced warming increases the specific humidity over all of Central Asia, increasing (decreasing) the precipitation over the climatological ascent (descent) region in eastern (western) Central Asia.
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contributor author | Peng, Dongdong | |
contributor author | Zhou, Tianjun | |
contributor author | Zhang, Lixia | |
contributor author | Wu, Bo | |
date accessioned | 2019-09-19T10:10:38Z | |
date available | 2019-09-19T10:10:38Z | |
date copyright | 7/19/2018 12:00:00 AM | |
date issued | 2018 | |
identifier other | jcli-d-17-0843.1.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4262397 | |
description abstract | AbstractThe ecosystem and societal development over arid Central Asia, the core connecting region of the Silk Road Economic Belt, are highly sensitive to climate change. The results derived from multiobservational datasets show that summer precipitation over Central Asia has significantly increased by 20.78% from 1961 to 2013. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the summer wetting trend or not. In this study, the corresponding physical processes and contributions of anthropogenic forcing are investigated by comparing reanalysis and experiments of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1 (CAM5.1), from the CLIVAR Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project. The observed wetting trend is well reproduced in the simulation driven by all radiative forcings (CAM5-All), but poorly reproduced in the simulation with natural forcings only (CAM5-Nat), confirming the important role of human contribution in the observed wetting trend. Moisture budget analysis shows that the observed wetting trend is dominated by the increasing vertical moisture advection term and results from enhanced vertical motion over nearly all of Central Asia. The observed contributions of moisture budget components to the wetting trend are only captured by CAM5-All experiments. The dynamic contribution is determined by the warm advection anomalies in association with a human-induced meridional uneven warm pattern. Human-induced warming increases the specific humidity over all of Central Asia, increasing (decreasing) the precipitation over the climatological ascent (descent) region in eastern (western) Central Asia. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013 | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 31 | |
journal issue | 19 | |
journal title | Journal of Climate | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0843.1 | |
journal fristpage | 8005 | |
journal lastpage | 8021 | |
tree | Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 019 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |