Precipitation Intensity Changes in the Tropics from Observations and Models

Abstract

AbstractTropical (30°N?30°S) interdecadal precipitation changes and trends are explored for the satellite era using GPCP monthly analyses and CMIP5 outputs and focusing on precipitation intensity distributions represented by percentiles (Pct) and other parameters. Positive trends occur for the upper percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th), and become statistically significant for Pct ≥ 80th. Negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (~20th?65th) and are statistically significant for the 20th?40th percentiles. As part of these trends there is a decadal shift around 1998, indicating the presence of an interdecadal [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] signal. For the lower percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), positive trends occur, although weakly. The AMIP-type simulations generally show similar trend results for their respective time periods.Precipitation intensity changes are further examined using four precipitation categories based on the climatological percentiles: Wet (Pct ≥ 70th), Intermediate (70th > Pct ≥ 30th), Dry (30th > Pct ≥ 5th), and No Rain (5th > Pct ≥ 0th). Epoch differences of occurrence frequency between 1988?97 and 1998?2015 have spatial features generally reflecting the combined effect of the PDO and external forcings, specifically the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)-related warming based on comparisons with both AMIP and CMIP results. Furthermore, precipitation intensity over Wet zones shows much stronger changes than mean precipitation including a more prominent change around 1998 associated with the PDO phase shift. Trends also appear in the sizes of Intermediate and Dry zones, especially over ocean. However, changes in the sizes of Wet and No Rain zones are generally weak. AMIP simulations reproduce these changes relatively well. Comparisons with the CMIP5 historical experiments further confirm that the observed changes and trends are a combination of the effect of the PDO phase shift and the impact of anthropogenic GHG-related warming.