The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice ExtentSource: Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 018::page 7169DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0495.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractGiven the rapidly changing Arctic climate, there is an urgent need for improved seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice. Yet, Arctic sea ice prediction is inherently complex. Among other factors, wintertime atmospheric circulation has been shown to be predictive of summertime Arctic sea ice extent. Specifically, many studies have shown that the interannual variability of summertime Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is anticorrelated with the leading mode of extratropical atmospheric variability, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), in the preceding winter. Given this relationship, the potential predictive role of stratospheric circulation extremes and stratosphere?troposphere coupling in linking the AO and Arctic SIE variability is examined. It is shown that extremes in the stratospheric circulation during the winter season, namely, stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events, are associated with significant anomalies in sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea in spring and along the Eurasian coastline in summer in both observations and a fully coupled, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. Consistent with previous work on the AO, it is shown that SSWs, which are followed by the negative phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice growth, whereas SPVs, which are followed by the positive phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice loss, although the mechanisms in the Barents Sea and along the Eurasian coastline are different. The analysis suggests that the presence or absence of stratospheric circulation extremes in winter may play a nontrivial role in determining total September Arctic SIE when combined with other factors.
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contributor author | Smith, Karen L. | |
contributor author | Polvani, Lorenzo M. | |
contributor author | Tremblay, L. Bruno | |
date accessioned | 2019-09-19T10:09:34Z | |
date available | 2019-09-19T10:09:34Z | |
date copyright | 6/18/2018 12:00:00 AM | |
date issued | 2018 | |
identifier other | jcli-d-17-0495.1.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4262197 | |
description abstract | AbstractGiven the rapidly changing Arctic climate, there is an urgent need for improved seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice. Yet, Arctic sea ice prediction is inherently complex. Among other factors, wintertime atmospheric circulation has been shown to be predictive of summertime Arctic sea ice extent. Specifically, many studies have shown that the interannual variability of summertime Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is anticorrelated with the leading mode of extratropical atmospheric variability, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), in the preceding winter. Given this relationship, the potential predictive role of stratospheric circulation extremes and stratosphere?troposphere coupling in linking the AO and Arctic SIE variability is examined. It is shown that extremes in the stratospheric circulation during the winter season, namely, stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events, are associated with significant anomalies in sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea in spring and along the Eurasian coastline in summer in both observations and a fully coupled, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. Consistent with previous work on the AO, it is shown that SSWs, which are followed by the negative phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice growth, whereas SPVs, which are followed by the positive phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice loss, although the mechanisms in the Barents Sea and along the Eurasian coastline are different. The analysis suggests that the presence or absence of stratospheric circulation extremes in winter may play a nontrivial role in determining total September Arctic SIE when combined with other factors. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 31 | |
journal issue | 18 | |
journal title | Journal of Climate | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0495.1 | |
journal fristpage | 7169 | |
journal lastpage | 7183 | |
tree | Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 018 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |