YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    CMIP5 Diversity in Southern Westerly Jet Projections Related to Historical Sea Ice Area: Strong Link to Strengthening and Weak Link to Shift

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2017:;volume 031:;issue 001::page 195
    Author:
    Bracegirdle, Thomas J.
    ,
    Hyder, Patrick
    ,
    Holmes, Caroline R.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0320.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractA major feature of projected changes in Southern Hemisphere climate under future scenarios of increased greenhouse gas concentrations is the poleward shift and strengthening of the main eddy-driven belt of midlatitude, near-surface westerly winds (the westerly jet). However, there is large uncertainty in projected twenty-first-century westerly jet changes across different climate models. Here models from the World Climate Research Programme?s phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated to assess linkages between diversity in simulated sea ice area (SIA), Antarctic amplification, and diversity in projected twenty-first-century changes in the westerly jet following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. To help disentangle cause and effect in the coupled model analysis, uncoupled atmosphere-only fixed sea surface experiments from CMIP5 were also evaluated. It is shown that across all seasons, approximately half of the variance in projected RCP8.5 jet strengthening is explained statistically by intermodel differences in simulated historical SIA, whereby CMIP5 models with larger baseline SIA exhibit more ice retreat and less jet strengthening in the future. However, links to jet shift are much weaker and are only statistically significant in austral autumn and winter. It is suggested that a significant cross-model correlation between historical jet strength and projected strength change (r = ?0.58) is, at least in part, a result of atmospherically driven historical SIA biases, which then feed back into the atmosphere in future projections. The results emphasize that SIA appears to act in concert with proximal changes in sea surface temperature gradients in relation to model diversity in westerly jet projections.
    • Download: (2.797Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      CMIP5 Diversity in Southern Westerly Jet Projections Related to Historical Sea Ice Area: Strong Link to Strengthening and Weak Link to Shift

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4262088
    Collections
    • Journal of Climate

    Show full item record

    contributor authorBracegirdle, Thomas J.
    contributor authorHyder, Patrick
    contributor authorHolmes, Caroline R.
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:08:59Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:08:59Z
    date copyright10/3/2017 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2017
    identifier otherjcli-d-17-0320.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4262088
    description abstractAbstractA major feature of projected changes in Southern Hemisphere climate under future scenarios of increased greenhouse gas concentrations is the poleward shift and strengthening of the main eddy-driven belt of midlatitude, near-surface westerly winds (the westerly jet). However, there is large uncertainty in projected twenty-first-century westerly jet changes across different climate models. Here models from the World Climate Research Programme?s phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated to assess linkages between diversity in simulated sea ice area (SIA), Antarctic amplification, and diversity in projected twenty-first-century changes in the westerly jet following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. To help disentangle cause and effect in the coupled model analysis, uncoupled atmosphere-only fixed sea surface experiments from CMIP5 were also evaluated. It is shown that across all seasons, approximately half of the variance in projected RCP8.5 jet strengthening is explained statistically by intermodel differences in simulated historical SIA, whereby CMIP5 models with larger baseline SIA exhibit more ice retreat and less jet strengthening in the future. However, links to jet shift are much weaker and are only statistically significant in austral autumn and winter. It is suggested that a significant cross-model correlation between historical jet strength and projected strength change (r = ?0.58) is, at least in part, a result of atmospherically driven historical SIA biases, which then feed back into the atmosphere in future projections. The results emphasize that SIA appears to act in concert with proximal changes in sea surface temperature gradients in relation to model diversity in westerly jet projections.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleCMIP5 Diversity in Southern Westerly Jet Projections Related to Historical Sea Ice Area: Strong Link to Strengthening and Weak Link to Shift
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume31
    journal issue1
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0320.1
    journal fristpage195
    journal lastpage211
    treeJournal of Climate:;2017:;volume 031:;issue 001
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian