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    Causes and Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events like Chennai 2015

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 010::page 3831
    Author:
    Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi
    ,
    Vecchi, Gabriel A.
    ,
    Yang, Xiaosong
    ,
    van der Wiel, Karin
    ,
    Balaji, V.
    ,
    Kapnick, Sarah B.
    ,
    Jia, Liwei
    ,
    Zeng, Fanrong
    ,
    Paffendorf, Karen
    ,
    Underwood, Seth
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0302.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractUnprecedented high-intensity flooding induced by extreme precipitation was reported over Chennai in India during November?December of 2015, which led to extensive damage to human life and property. It is of utmost importance to determine the odds of occurrence of such extreme floods in the future, and the related climate phenomena, for planning and mitigation purposes. Here, a suite of simulations from GFDL high-resolution coupled climate models are used to investigate the odds of occurrence of extreme floods induced by extreme precipitation over Chennai and the role of radiative forcing and/or large-scale SST forcing in enhancing the probability of such events in the future. The climate of twentieth-century experiments with large ensembles suggest that the radiative forcing may not enhance the probability of extreme floods over Chennai. Doubling of CO2 experiments also fails to show evidence for an increase of such events in a global warming scenario. Further, this study explores the role of SST forcing from the Indian and Pacific Oceans on the odds of occurrence of Chennai-like floods. Neither El Niño nor La Niña enhances the probability of extreme floods over Chennai. However, a warm Bay of Bengal tends to increase the odds of occurrence of extreme Chennai-like floods. In order to trigger a Chennai like-flood, a conducive weather event, such as a tropical depression over the Bay of Bengal with strong transport of moisture from a moist atmosphere over the warm Bay, is necessary for the intense precipitation.
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      Causes and Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events like Chennai 2015

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    • Journal of Climate

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    contributor authorKrishnamurthy, Lakshmi
    contributor authorVecchi, Gabriel A.
    contributor authorYang, Xiaosong
    contributor authorvan der Wiel, Karin
    contributor authorBalaji, V.
    contributor authorKapnick, Sarah B.
    contributor authorJia, Liwei
    contributor authorZeng, Fanrong
    contributor authorPaffendorf, Karen
    contributor authorUnderwood, Seth
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:08:55Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:08:55Z
    date copyright2/26/2018 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2018
    identifier otherjcli-d-17-0302.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4262076
    description abstractAbstractUnprecedented high-intensity flooding induced by extreme precipitation was reported over Chennai in India during November?December of 2015, which led to extensive damage to human life and property. It is of utmost importance to determine the odds of occurrence of such extreme floods in the future, and the related climate phenomena, for planning and mitigation purposes. Here, a suite of simulations from GFDL high-resolution coupled climate models are used to investigate the odds of occurrence of extreme floods induced by extreme precipitation over Chennai and the role of radiative forcing and/or large-scale SST forcing in enhancing the probability of such events in the future. The climate of twentieth-century experiments with large ensembles suggest that the radiative forcing may not enhance the probability of extreme floods over Chennai. Doubling of CO2 experiments also fails to show evidence for an increase of such events in a global warming scenario. Further, this study explores the role of SST forcing from the Indian and Pacific Oceans on the odds of occurrence of Chennai-like floods. Neither El Niño nor La Niña enhances the probability of extreme floods over Chennai. However, a warm Bay of Bengal tends to increase the odds of occurrence of extreme Chennai-like floods. In order to trigger a Chennai like-flood, a conducive weather event, such as a tropical depression over the Bay of Bengal with strong transport of moisture from a moist atmosphere over the warm Bay, is necessary for the intense precipitation.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleCauses and Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events like Chennai 2015
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume31
    journal issue10
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0302.1
    journal fristpage3831
    journal lastpage3848
    treeJournal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 010
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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