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    Detection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2018:;volume 033:;issue 004::page 901
    Author:
    Raynaud, Laure
    ,
    Touzé, Benoît
    ,
    Arbogast, Philippe
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0183.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) are commonly used to compare an ensemble forecast to a reference model climatology, in order to measure the severity of the current weather forecast. In this study, the feasibility and the relevance of EFI and SOT computations are examined within the convection-permitting Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME-France) ensemble prediction system (EPS). First, different climate configurations are proposed and discussed, in order to overcome the small size of the ensemble and the short climate sampling length. Subjective and objective evaluations of EFI and SOT for wind gusts and precipitation forecasts are then presented. It is shown that these indices can provide relevant early warnings and, based on a trade-off between hits and false alarms, optimal EFI thresholds can be determined for decision-making.
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      Detection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4261409
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    contributor authorRaynaud, Laure
    contributor authorTouzé, Benoît
    contributor authorArbogast, Philippe
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:05:26Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:05:26Z
    date copyright5/22/2018 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2018
    identifier otherwaf-d-17-0183.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4261409
    description abstractAbstractThe extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) are commonly used to compare an ensemble forecast to a reference model climatology, in order to measure the severity of the current weather forecast. In this study, the feasibility and the relevance of EFI and SOT computations are examined within the convection-permitting Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME-France) ensemble prediction system (EPS). First, different climate configurations are proposed and discussed, in order to overcome the small size of the ensemble and the short climate sampling length. Subjective and objective evaluations of EFI and SOT for wind gusts and precipitation forecasts are then presented. It is shown that these indices can provide relevant early warnings and, based on a trade-off between hits and false alarms, optimal EFI thresholds can be determined for decision-making.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleDetection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume33
    journal issue4
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-17-0183.1
    journal fristpage901
    journal lastpage908
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2018:;volume 033:;issue 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian