Detection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2018:;volume 033:;issue 004::page 901DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0183.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) are commonly used to compare an ensemble forecast to a reference model climatology, in order to measure the severity of the current weather forecast. In this study, the feasibility and the relevance of EFI and SOT computations are examined within the convection-permitting Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME-France) ensemble prediction system (EPS). First, different climate configurations are proposed and discussed, in order to overcome the small size of the ensemble and the short climate sampling length. Subjective and objective evaluations of EFI and SOT for wind gusts and precipitation forecasts are then presented. It is shown that these indices can provide relevant early warnings and, based on a trade-off between hits and false alarms, optimal EFI thresholds can be determined for decision-making.
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contributor author | Raynaud, Laure | |
contributor author | Touzé, Benoît | |
contributor author | Arbogast, Philippe | |
date accessioned | 2019-09-19T10:05:26Z | |
date available | 2019-09-19T10:05:26Z | |
date copyright | 5/22/2018 12:00:00 AM | |
date issued | 2018 | |
identifier other | waf-d-17-0183.1.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4261409 | |
description abstract | AbstractThe extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) are commonly used to compare an ensemble forecast to a reference model climatology, in order to measure the severity of the current weather forecast. In this study, the feasibility and the relevance of EFI and SOT computations are examined within the convection-permitting Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME-France) ensemble prediction system (EPS). First, different climate configurations are proposed and discussed, in order to overcome the small size of the ensemble and the short climate sampling length. Subjective and objective evaluations of EFI and SOT for wind gusts and precipitation forecasts are then presented. It is shown that these indices can provide relevant early warnings and, based on a trade-off between hits and false alarms, optimal EFI thresholds can be determined for decision-making. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Detection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 33 | |
journal issue | 4 | |
journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0183.1 | |
journal fristpage | 901 | |
journal lastpage | 908 | |
tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2018:;volume 033:;issue 004 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |