YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Weather and Forecasting
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Weather and Forecasting
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    Comparative Assessment of Two Objective Forecast Models for Cases of Persistent Extreme Precipitation Events in the Yangtze–Huai River Valley in Summer 2016

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2017:;volume 033:;issue 001::page 221
    Author:
    Zhou, Baiquan
    ,
    Zhai, Panmao
    ,
    Niu, Ruoyun
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0039.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractTwo persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) that caused severe flooding in the Yangtze?Huai River valley in summer 2016 presented a significant challenge to operational forecasters. To provide forecasters with useful references, the capacity of two objective forecast models in predicting these two PEPEs is investigated. The objective models include a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and a statistical downscaling model, the Key Influential Systems Based Analog Model (KISAM). Results show that the ECMWF ensemble provides a skillful spectrum of solutions for determining the location of the daily heavy precipitation (≥25 mm day?1) during the PEPEs, despite its general underestimation of heavy precipitation. For lead times longer than 3 days, KISAM outperforms the ensemble mean and nearly one-half or more of all the ensemble members of ECMWF. Moreover, at longer lead times, KISAM generally performs better in reproducing the meridional location of accumulated rainfall over the two PEPEs compared to the ECMWF ensemble mean and the control run. Further verification of the vertical velocity that affects the production of heavy rainfall in ECMWF and KISAM implies the quality of the depiction of ascending motion during the PEPEs has a dominating influence on the models? performance in predicting the meridional location of the PEPEs at all lead times. The superiority of KISAM indicates that statistical downscaling techniques are effective in alleviating the deficiency of global NWP models for PEPE forecasts in the medium range of 4?10 days.
    • Download: (4.707Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      Comparative Assessment of Two Objective Forecast Models for Cases of Persistent Extreme Precipitation Events in the Yangtze–Huai River Valley in Summer 2016

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4261352
    Collections
    • Weather and Forecasting

    Show full item record

    contributor authorZhou, Baiquan
    contributor authorZhai, Panmao
    contributor authorNiu, Ruoyun
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:05:09Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:05:09Z
    date copyright12/28/2017 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2017
    identifier otherwaf-d-17-0039.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4261352
    description abstractAbstractTwo persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) that caused severe flooding in the Yangtze?Huai River valley in summer 2016 presented a significant challenge to operational forecasters. To provide forecasters with useful references, the capacity of two objective forecast models in predicting these two PEPEs is investigated. The objective models include a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and a statistical downscaling model, the Key Influential Systems Based Analog Model (KISAM). Results show that the ECMWF ensemble provides a skillful spectrum of solutions for determining the location of the daily heavy precipitation (≥25 mm day?1) during the PEPEs, despite its general underestimation of heavy precipitation. For lead times longer than 3 days, KISAM outperforms the ensemble mean and nearly one-half or more of all the ensemble members of ECMWF. Moreover, at longer lead times, KISAM generally performs better in reproducing the meridional location of accumulated rainfall over the two PEPEs compared to the ECMWF ensemble mean and the control run. Further verification of the vertical velocity that affects the production of heavy rainfall in ECMWF and KISAM implies the quality of the depiction of ascending motion during the PEPEs has a dominating influence on the models? performance in predicting the meridional location of the PEPEs at all lead times. The superiority of KISAM indicates that statistical downscaling techniques are effective in alleviating the deficiency of global NWP models for PEPE forecasts in the medium range of 4?10 days.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleComparative Assessment of Two Objective Forecast Models for Cases of Persistent Extreme Precipitation Events in the Yangtze–Huai River Valley in Summer 2016
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume33
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-17-0039.1
    journal fristpage221
    journal lastpage238
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2017:;volume 033:;issue 001
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian