The Unexpected Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear. Part I: Overview and Observations

Abstract

AbstractA satellite-based investigation is performed of a class of tropical cyclones (TCs) that unexpectedly undergo rapid intensification (RI) in moderate vertical wind shear between 5 and 10 m s?1 calculated as 200?850-hPa shear. This study makes use of both infrared (IR; 11 ?m) and water vapor (WV; 6.5 ?m) geostationary satellite data, the Statistical Hurricane Prediction Intensity System (SHIPS), and model reanalyses to highlight commonalities of the six TCs. The commonalities serve as predictive guides for forecasters and common features that can be used to constrain and verify idealized modeling studies. Each of the TCs exhibits a convective cloud structure that is identified as a tilt-modulated convective asymmetry (TCA). These TCAs share similar shapes, upshear-relative positions, and IR cloud-top temperatures (below ?70°C). They pulse over the core of the TC with a periodicity of between 4 and 8 h. Using WV satellite imagery, two additional features identified are asymmetric warming/drying upshear of the TC relative to downshear, as well as radially thin arc-shaped clouds on the upshear side. The WV brightness temperatures of these arcs are between ?40° and ?60°C. All of the TCs are sheared by upper-level anticyclones, which limits the strongest environmental winds to near the tropopause.