Assimilation of GOES-13 Imager Clear-Sky Water Vapor (6.5 μm) Radiances into a Warn-on-Forecast System

Abstract

AbstractA prototype convection-allowing system using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model and employing an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation technique has been developed and used during the spring 2016 and 2017 Hazardous Weather Testbeds. This system assimilates WSR-88D reflectivity and radial velocity, geostationary satellite cloud water path (CWP) retrievals, and available surface observations over a regional domain with a 3-km horizontal resolution at 15-min intervals, with 3-km initial conditions provided by an experimental High-Resolution Rapid Refresh ensemble (HRRR-e). However, no information on upper-level thermodynamic conditions in cloud-free regions is currently assimilated, as few timely observations exist. One potential solution is to also assimilate clear-sky satellite radiances, which provide information on mid- and upper-tropospheric temperature and moisture conditions. This research assimilates GOES-13 imager water vapor band (6.5 ?m) radiances using the GSI-EnKF system to take advantage of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) integration. Results using four cases from May 2016 showed that assimilating radiances generally had a neutral-to-positive impact on the model analysis, reducing humidity bias and/or errors at the appropriate model levels where verification observations were present. The effects on high-impact weather forecasts, as verified against forecast reflectivity and updraft helicity, were mixed. Three cases (9, 22, and 24 May) showed some improvement in skill, while the other (25 May) performed worse, despite the improved environment. This research represents the first step in designing a high-resolution ensemble data assimilation system to use GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager data, which provides additional water vapor bands and increased spatial and temporal resolution.