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    Potential Vorticity Dynamics of Forecast Errors: A Quantitative Case Study

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2018:;volume 146:;issue 005::page 1405
    Author:
    Baumgart, Marlene
    ,
    Riemer, Michael
    ,
    Wirth, Volkmar
    ,
    Teubler, Franziska
    ,
    Lang, Simon T. K.
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0196.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractSynoptic-scale error growth near the tropopause is investigated from a process-based perspective. Following previous work, a potential vorticity (PV) error tendency equation is derived and partitioned into individual contributions to yield insight into the processes governing error growth near the tropopause. Importantly, we focus here on the further amplification of preexisting errors and not on the origin of errors. The individual contributions to error growth are quantified in a case study of a 6-day forecast. In this case, localized mesoscale error maxima have formed by forecast day 2. These maxima organize into a wavelike pattern and reach the Rossby wave scale around forecast day 6. Error growth occurs most prominently within the Atlantic and Pacific Rossby wave patterns. In our PV framework, the error growth is dominated by the contribution of upper-level, near-tropopause PV anomalies (near-tropopause dynamics). Significant contributions from upper-tropospheric divergent flow (prominently associated with latent heat release below) and lower-tropospheric anomalies [tropospheric-deep (i.e., baroclinic) interaction] are associated with a misrepresentation of the surface cyclone development in the forecast. These contributions are, in general, of smaller importance to error growth than near-tropopause dynamics. This result indicates that the mesoscale errors generated near the tropopause do not primarily project on differences in the subsequent baroclinic growth, but instead directly project on the tropopause evolution and amplify because of differences in the nonlinear Rossby wave dynamics.
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      Potential Vorticity Dynamics of Forecast Errors: A Quantitative Case Study

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    contributor authorBaumgart, Marlene
    contributor authorRiemer, Michael
    contributor authorWirth, Volkmar
    contributor authorTeubler, Franziska
    contributor authorLang, Simon T. K.
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:04:13Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:04:13Z
    date copyright3/28/2018 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2018
    identifier othermwr-d-17-0196.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4261192
    description abstractAbstractSynoptic-scale error growth near the tropopause is investigated from a process-based perspective. Following previous work, a potential vorticity (PV) error tendency equation is derived and partitioned into individual contributions to yield insight into the processes governing error growth near the tropopause. Importantly, we focus here on the further amplification of preexisting errors and not on the origin of errors. The individual contributions to error growth are quantified in a case study of a 6-day forecast. In this case, localized mesoscale error maxima have formed by forecast day 2. These maxima organize into a wavelike pattern and reach the Rossby wave scale around forecast day 6. Error growth occurs most prominently within the Atlantic and Pacific Rossby wave patterns. In our PV framework, the error growth is dominated by the contribution of upper-level, near-tropopause PV anomalies (near-tropopause dynamics). Significant contributions from upper-tropospheric divergent flow (prominently associated with latent heat release below) and lower-tropospheric anomalies [tropospheric-deep (i.e., baroclinic) interaction] are associated with a misrepresentation of the surface cyclone development in the forecast. These contributions are, in general, of smaller importance to error growth than near-tropopause dynamics. This result indicates that the mesoscale errors generated near the tropopause do not primarily project on differences in the subsequent baroclinic growth, but instead directly project on the tropopause evolution and amplify because of differences in the nonlinear Rossby wave dynamics.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titlePotential Vorticity Dynamics of Forecast Errors: A Quantitative Case Study
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume146
    journal issue5
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-17-0196.1
    journal fristpage1405
    journal lastpage1425
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2018:;volume 146:;issue 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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