Assessing the Skill of Medium-Range Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for the Upper Trinity River Basin in North TexasSource: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2018:;volume 019:;issue 009::page 1467Author:Kim, Sunghee
,
Sadeghi, Hossein
,
Limon, Reza Ahmad
,
Saharia, Manabendra
,
Seo, Dong-Jun
,
Philpott, Andrew
,
Bell, Frank
,
Brown, James
,
He, Minxue
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0027.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractTo issue early warnings for the public to act, for emergency managers to take preventive actions, and for water managers to operate their systems cost-effectively, it is necessary to maximize the time horizon over which streamflow forecasts are skillful. In this work, we assess the value of medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in increasing the lead time and skill of streamflow forecasts for five headwater basins in the upper Trinity River basin in north-central Texas. The HEFS uses ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP). For comparative evaluation, we verify ensemble streamflow forecasts generated with the HEFS forced by the GEFS forecast with those forced by the short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) based on guidance from the NCEP?s Weather Prediction Center. We also assess the benefits of postprocessing the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts and evaluate the impact of selected parameters within the HEFS on forecast quality. The results show that the use of medium-range precipitation forecasts from the GEFS with the HEFS extends the time horizon for skillful forecasting of mean daily streamflow by 1?3 days for significant events when compared with using only the 72-h River Forecast Center (RFC) QPF with the HEFS. The HEFS forced by the GEFS also improves the skill of two-week-ahead biweekly streamflow forecast by about 20% over climatological forecast for the largest 1% of the observed biweekly flow.
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contributor author | Kim, Sunghee | |
contributor author | Sadeghi, Hossein | |
contributor author | Limon, Reza Ahmad | |
contributor author | Saharia, Manabendra | |
contributor author | Seo, Dong-Jun | |
contributor author | Philpott, Andrew | |
contributor author | Bell, Frank | |
contributor author | Brown, James | |
contributor author | He, Minxue | |
date accessioned | 2019-09-19T10:02:10Z | |
date available | 2019-09-19T10:02:10Z | |
date copyright | 8/7/2018 12:00:00 AM | |
date issued | 2018 | |
identifier other | jhm-d-18-0027.1.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4260825 | |
description abstract | AbstractTo issue early warnings for the public to act, for emergency managers to take preventive actions, and for water managers to operate their systems cost-effectively, it is necessary to maximize the time horizon over which streamflow forecasts are skillful. In this work, we assess the value of medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in increasing the lead time and skill of streamflow forecasts for five headwater basins in the upper Trinity River basin in north-central Texas. The HEFS uses ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP). For comparative evaluation, we verify ensemble streamflow forecasts generated with the HEFS forced by the GEFS forecast with those forced by the short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) based on guidance from the NCEP?s Weather Prediction Center. We also assess the benefits of postprocessing the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts and evaluate the impact of selected parameters within the HEFS on forecast quality. The results show that the use of medium-range precipitation forecasts from the GEFS with the HEFS extends the time horizon for skillful forecasting of mean daily streamflow by 1?3 days for significant events when compared with using only the 72-h River Forecast Center (RFC) QPF with the HEFS. The HEFS forced by the GEFS also improves the skill of two-week-ahead biweekly streamflow forecast by about 20% over climatological forecast for the largest 1% of the observed biweekly flow. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Assessing the Skill of Medium-Range Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for the Upper Trinity River Basin in North Texas | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 19 | |
journal issue | 9 | |
journal title | Journal of Hydrometeorology | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0027.1 | |
journal fristpage | 1467 | |
journal lastpage | 1483 | |
tree | Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2018:;volume 019:;issue 009 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |