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    Assessing the Skill of Medium-Range Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for the Upper Trinity River Basin in North Texas

    Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2018:;volume 019:;issue 009::page 1467
    Author:
    Kim, Sunghee
    ,
    Sadeghi, Hossein
    ,
    Limon, Reza Ahmad
    ,
    Saharia, Manabendra
    ,
    Seo, Dong-Jun
    ,
    Philpott, Andrew
    ,
    Bell, Frank
    ,
    Brown, James
    ,
    He, Minxue
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0027.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractTo issue early warnings for the public to act, for emergency managers to take preventive actions, and for water managers to operate their systems cost-effectively, it is necessary to maximize the time horizon over which streamflow forecasts are skillful. In this work, we assess the value of medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in increasing the lead time and skill of streamflow forecasts for five headwater basins in the upper Trinity River basin in north-central Texas. The HEFS uses ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP). For comparative evaluation, we verify ensemble streamflow forecasts generated with the HEFS forced by the GEFS forecast with those forced by the short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) based on guidance from the NCEP?s Weather Prediction Center. We also assess the benefits of postprocessing the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts and evaluate the impact of selected parameters within the HEFS on forecast quality. The results show that the use of medium-range precipitation forecasts from the GEFS with the HEFS extends the time horizon for skillful forecasting of mean daily streamflow by 1?3 days for significant events when compared with using only the 72-h River Forecast Center (RFC) QPF with the HEFS. The HEFS forced by the GEFS also improves the skill of two-week-ahead biweekly streamflow forecast by about 20% over climatological forecast for the largest 1% of the observed biweekly flow.
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      Assessing the Skill of Medium-Range Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for the Upper Trinity River Basin in North Texas

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4260825
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    • Journal of Hydrometeorology

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    contributor authorKim, Sunghee
    contributor authorSadeghi, Hossein
    contributor authorLimon, Reza Ahmad
    contributor authorSaharia, Manabendra
    contributor authorSeo, Dong-Jun
    contributor authorPhilpott, Andrew
    contributor authorBell, Frank
    contributor authorBrown, James
    contributor authorHe, Minxue
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:02:10Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:02:10Z
    date copyright8/7/2018 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2018
    identifier otherjhm-d-18-0027.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4260825
    description abstractAbstractTo issue early warnings for the public to act, for emergency managers to take preventive actions, and for water managers to operate their systems cost-effectively, it is necessary to maximize the time horizon over which streamflow forecasts are skillful. In this work, we assess the value of medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in increasing the lead time and skill of streamflow forecasts for five headwater basins in the upper Trinity River basin in north-central Texas. The HEFS uses ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP). For comparative evaluation, we verify ensemble streamflow forecasts generated with the HEFS forced by the GEFS forecast with those forced by the short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) based on guidance from the NCEP?s Weather Prediction Center. We also assess the benefits of postprocessing the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts and evaluate the impact of selected parameters within the HEFS on forecast quality. The results show that the use of medium-range precipitation forecasts from the GEFS with the HEFS extends the time horizon for skillful forecasting of mean daily streamflow by 1?3 days for significant events when compared with using only the 72-h River Forecast Center (RFC) QPF with the HEFS. The HEFS forced by the GEFS also improves the skill of two-week-ahead biweekly streamflow forecast by about 20% over climatological forecast for the largest 1% of the observed biweekly flow.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAssessing the Skill of Medium-Range Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for the Upper Trinity River Basin in North Texas
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume19
    journal issue9
    journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
    identifier doi10.1175/JHM-D-18-0027.1
    journal fristpage1467
    journal lastpage1483
    treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2018:;volume 019:;issue 009
    contenttypeFulltext
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