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    Precipitation Sensitivity to the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Flow in WRF-Hydro: An Ensemble Analysis for Central Europe

    Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2018:;volume 019:;issue 006::page 1007
    Author:
    Arnault, Joël
    ,
    Rummler, Thomas
    ,
    Baur, Florian
    ,
    Lerch, Sebastian
    ,
    Wagner, Sven
    ,
    Fersch, Benjamin
    ,
    Zhang, Zhenyu
    ,
    Kerandi, Noah
    ,
    Keil, Christian
    ,
    Kunstmann, Harald
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-17-0042.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractPrecipitation is affected by soil moisture spatial variability. However, this variability is not well represented in atmospheric models that do not consider soil moisture transport as a three-dimensional process. This study investigates the sensitivity of precipitation to the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flow. The tools used for this investigation are the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and its hydrologically enhanced version, WRF-Hydro, applied over central Europe during April?October 2008. The model grid is convection permitting, with a horizontal spacing of 2.8 km. The WRF-Hydro subgrid employs a 280-m resolution to resolve lateral terrestrial water flow. A WRF/WRF-Hydro ensemble is constructed by modifying the parameter controlling the partitioning between surface runoff and infiltration and by varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. This ensemble represents terrestrial water flow uncertainty originating from the consideration of resolved lateral flow, terrestrial water flow uncertainty in the vertical direction, and turbulence parameterization uncertainty. The uncertainty of terrestrial water flow noticeably increases the normalized ensemble spread of daily precipitation where topography is moderate, surface flux spatial variability is high, and the weather regime is dominated by local processes. The adjusted continuous ranked probability score shows that the PBL uncertainty improves the skill of an ensemble subset in reproducing daily precipitation from the E-OBS observational product by 16%?20%. In comparison to WRF, WRF-Hydro improves this skill by 0.4%?0.7%. The reproduction of observed daily discharge with Nash?Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients generally above 0.3 demonstrates the potential of WRF-Hydro in hydrological science.
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      Precipitation Sensitivity to the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Flow in WRF-Hydro: An Ensemble Analysis for Central Europe

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    contributor authorArnault, Joël
    contributor authorRummler, Thomas
    contributor authorBaur, Florian
    contributor authorLerch, Sebastian
    contributor authorWagner, Sven
    contributor authorFersch, Benjamin
    contributor authorZhang, Zhenyu
    contributor authorKerandi, Noah
    contributor authorKeil, Christian
    contributor authorKunstmann, Harald
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:01:41Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:01:41Z
    date copyright5/9/2018 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2018
    identifier otherjhm-d-17-0042.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4260742
    description abstractAbstractPrecipitation is affected by soil moisture spatial variability. However, this variability is not well represented in atmospheric models that do not consider soil moisture transport as a three-dimensional process. This study investigates the sensitivity of precipitation to the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flow. The tools used for this investigation are the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and its hydrologically enhanced version, WRF-Hydro, applied over central Europe during April?October 2008. The model grid is convection permitting, with a horizontal spacing of 2.8 km. The WRF-Hydro subgrid employs a 280-m resolution to resolve lateral terrestrial water flow. A WRF/WRF-Hydro ensemble is constructed by modifying the parameter controlling the partitioning between surface runoff and infiltration and by varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. This ensemble represents terrestrial water flow uncertainty originating from the consideration of resolved lateral flow, terrestrial water flow uncertainty in the vertical direction, and turbulence parameterization uncertainty. The uncertainty of terrestrial water flow noticeably increases the normalized ensemble spread of daily precipitation where topography is moderate, surface flux spatial variability is high, and the weather regime is dominated by local processes. The adjusted continuous ranked probability score shows that the PBL uncertainty improves the skill of an ensemble subset in reproducing daily precipitation from the E-OBS observational product by 16%?20%. In comparison to WRF, WRF-Hydro improves this skill by 0.4%?0.7%. The reproduction of observed daily discharge with Nash?Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients generally above 0.3 demonstrates the potential of WRF-Hydro in hydrological science.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titlePrecipitation Sensitivity to the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Flow in WRF-Hydro: An Ensemble Analysis for Central Europe
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume19
    journal issue6
    journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
    identifier doi10.1175/JHM-D-17-0042.1
    journal fristpage1007
    journal lastpage1025
    treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2018:;volume 019:;issue 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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