Bias in Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level Change Inferred from Satellite Altimetry

Abstract

abstractEstimates of regional and global average sea level change remain a focus of climate change research. One complication in obtaining coherent estimates is that geodetic datasets measure different aspects of the sea level field. Satellite altimetry constrains changes in the sea surface height (SSH; or absolute sea level), whereas tide gauge data provide a measure of changes in SSH relative to the crust (i.e., relative sea level). The latter is a direct measure of changes in ocean volume (and the combined impacts of ice sheet melt and steric effects), but the former is not since it does not account for crustal deformation. Nevertheless, the literature commonly conflates the two estimates by directly comparing them. We demonstrate that using satellite altimetry records to estimate global ocean volume changes can lead to biases that can exceed 15%. The level of bias will depend on the relative contributions to sea level changes from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. The bias is also more sensitive to the detailed geometry of mass flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet than the Greenland Ice Sheet due to rotational effects on sea level. Finally, in a regional sense, altimetry estimates should not be compared to relative sea level changes because radial crustal motions driven by polar ice mass flux are nonnegligible globally.