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    The Influence of CO2 Forcing on North American Monsoon Moisture Surges

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 019::page 7949
    Author:
    Pascale, Salvatore
    ,
    Kapnick, Sarah B.
    ,
    Bordoni, Simona
    ,
    Delworth, Thomas L.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0007.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractWidespread multiday convective bursts in the southwestern United States during the North American monsoon are often triggered by Gulf of California moisture surges (GoC surges). However, how GoC surges, and the amount and intensity of associated precipitation, will change in response to CO2-induced warming remains little known, not least because the most widely available climate models do not currently resolve the relevant mesoscale dynamics because of their coarse resolution (100 km or more). In this study, a 50-km-resolution global coupled model is used to address this question. It is found that the mean number of GoC surge events remains unchanged under CO2 doubling, but intermediate-to-high intensity surge-related precipitation tends to become less frequent, thus reducing the mean summertime rainfall. Low-level moisture fluxes associated with GoC surges as well as their convergence over land to the east of the GoC intensify, but the increases in low-level moisture are not matched by the larger increments in the near-surface saturation specific humidity because of amplified land warming. This results in a more unsaturated low-level atmospheric environment that disfavors moist convection. These thermodynamic changes are accompanied by dynamic changes that are also detrimental to convective activity, with the midlevel monsoonal ridge projected to expand and move to the west of its present-day climatological maximum. Despite the overall reduction in precipitation, the frequency of very intense, localized daily surge-related precipitation in Arizona and surrounding areas is projected to increase with increased precipitable water.
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      The Influence of CO2 Forcing on North American Monsoon Moisture Surges

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    contributor authorPascale, Salvatore
    contributor authorKapnick, Sarah B.
    contributor authorBordoni, Simona
    contributor authorDelworth, Thomas L.
    date accessioned2019-09-19T10:01:17Z
    date available2019-09-19T10:01:17Z
    date copyright7/11/2018 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2018
    identifier otherjcli-d-18-0007.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4260663
    description abstractAbstractWidespread multiday convective bursts in the southwestern United States during the North American monsoon are often triggered by Gulf of California moisture surges (GoC surges). However, how GoC surges, and the amount and intensity of associated precipitation, will change in response to CO2-induced warming remains little known, not least because the most widely available climate models do not currently resolve the relevant mesoscale dynamics because of their coarse resolution (100 km or more). In this study, a 50-km-resolution global coupled model is used to address this question. It is found that the mean number of GoC surge events remains unchanged under CO2 doubling, but intermediate-to-high intensity surge-related precipitation tends to become less frequent, thus reducing the mean summertime rainfall. Low-level moisture fluxes associated with GoC surges as well as their convergence over land to the east of the GoC intensify, but the increases in low-level moisture are not matched by the larger increments in the near-surface saturation specific humidity because of amplified land warming. This results in a more unsaturated low-level atmospheric environment that disfavors moist convection. These thermodynamic changes are accompanied by dynamic changes that are also detrimental to convective activity, with the midlevel monsoonal ridge projected to expand and move to the west of its present-day climatological maximum. Despite the overall reduction in precipitation, the frequency of very intense, localized daily surge-related precipitation in Arizona and surrounding areas is projected to increase with increased precipitable water.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleThe Influence of CO2 Forcing on North American Monsoon Moisture Surges
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume31
    journal issue19
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0007.1
    journal fristpage7949
    journal lastpage7968
    treeJournal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 019
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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