| description abstract | Automatic sensing devices and computer systems have been widely adopted by the automotive manufacturing industry, which are capable to record machine status and process parameters nonstop. While a manufacturing process always has natural variations, it is crucial to detect significant changes to the process for quality control, as such changes may be the early signs of machine faults. This motivates our study on change-point detection methods for automotive manufacturing. We aim at developing a systematic approach for detecting process changes retrospectively in complex, nonstationary data. The proposed approach consists of nonparametric change-point detection, alarm generation based on change-point estimations, and performance evaluation against historical maintenance records. For change-point detection, three nonparametric methods are suggested—least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), thresholded LASSO, and wild binary segmentation (WBS). Multiple decision rules are proposed to determine how to generate alarms from change-point estimations. Numerical studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed systematic approach. The different change-point detection methods and different decision rules are evaluated and compared, with scenarios for choosing one set of change-point detection method and decision rule over another combination identified. It is shown that LASSO and thresholded-LASSO outperform WBS when the shift size is small, but WBS produces a smaller false alarm rate and handles the clustering of changes better than LASSO or thresholded LASSO. Data from an automotive manufacturing plant are used in the case study to demonstrate the proposed approach. Guidelines for implementation are also provided. | |
