Reservoir Operations under Changing Climate Conditions: Hydropower-Production Perspective

Abstract

Climate change has significant effects on the management of complex water resource systems. The objective of this study was to assess climate change effects on reservoir system operations. The assessment was performed using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, four global climate models (GCMs), six downscaling methods, one hydrologic model, and a system dynamics simulation model (SDM). The analyses were conducted for a future time period (2036–2065) and results were compared with the historical time period (1984–2013). The Campbell River basin in British Columbia, Canada, was used as a case study area. The Campbell River basin consists of three reservoirs: Strathcona, Ladore, and John Hart. The results show that the inflow in all three reservoirs decreases during summer and fall, which decreases power production. In addition, it was observed that power production from downstream reservoirs (Ladore and John Hart) will decrease more drastically than the upstream reservoir (Strathcona) in the future. Results show that downscaling models contribute the highest level of uncertainty, which propagates from reservoir inflow to power production. The results of the study show that hydropower reliability will decrease more than 50% for all three reservoirs under future changing climate conditions.