Statistical Analysis on the Cost and Duration of Public Building Projects

Abstract

A probabilistic model is proposed to predict the risk effects on time and cost of public building projects. The research goal is to utilize a real history data in estimating project cost and duration. The model results can be used to adjust floats and budgets of the planning schedule before project commencement. Statistical regression models and sample tests are developed using real data of 113 public projects. The model outputs can be used by project managers in the planning phase to validate the schedule critical path time and project budget. The comparison of means analysis for project cost and time performance indicated that the sample projects tend to finish over budget and almost on schedule. Regression models were developed to model project cost and time. The regression analysis showed that the project budgeted cost and planned project duration provide a good basis for estimating the cost and duration. The regression model results were validated by estimating the prediction error in percent and through conducting out-of-sample tests. In conclusion, the models were validated at a probability of 95%, at which the proposed models predict the project cost and duration at an error margin of ±0.035% of the actual cost and time.