Effect of Dwelling Buses on the Traffic Operations of Nonmotor Vehicles at Bus Stops

Abstract

This study proposed a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of dwelling buses on the traffic operations of nonmotor vehicles at stops in China. The primary objectives of this study were to compare the changes in nonmotor vehicle speeds with/without dwelling buses by applying statistical methods; and to develop a generalized event count (GEC) model for traffic conflict prediction and analysis. In addition, a heat map was used in this study to better understand the changes in location of conflicts at bus stops. Data were collected by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with a visual range of 6 m at the near side, far side, and midblock stops in China. The results showed that the average effect, which was estimated by averaging the differences over all three types of bus stops, was (2.5+4.1+1.8)/3=2.8 km/h. Furthermore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed GEC model, another model based on the queuing theory method was used for comparison. According to the results, the GEC model had more accurate and reliable fitted values [with 12.8% of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and .8442 of R-squared] than the compared method (with 18.55% of MAPE and .7397 of R-squared). Consequently, with the proposed method, it was feasible to evaluate the effects of dwelling buses on the traffic operations of nonmotor vehicles at bus stops. Finally, to improve the traffic operations at stops, transportation agencies could consider implementing countermeasures to control the conflicts between dwelling buses and nonmotor vehicles, such as reducing bus delay time at stops.